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Gordon model : ウィキペディア英語版
Dividend discount model
The dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing a company's stock price based on the theory that its stock is worth the sum of all of its future dividend payments, discounted back to their present value.〔(Investopedia – Digging Into The Dividend Discount Model )〕 In other words, it is used to value stocks based on the net present value of the future dividends. The equation most widely used is called the Gordon growth model. It is named after Myron J. Gordon of the University of Toronto, who originally published it along with Eli Shapiro in 1956 and made reference to it in 1959.〔Gordon, M.J and Eli Shapiro (1956) "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, 3,(1) (October 1956) 102-110. Reprinted in ''Management of Corporate Capital'', Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press of, 1959.〕 Their work borrowed heavily from the theoretical and mathematical ideas found in John Burr Williams 1938 book "The Theory of Investment Value."
The variables are: P is the current stock price. g is the constant growth rate in perpetuity expected for the dividends. r is the constant cost of equity capital for that company. D_1 is the value of the next year's dividends.
:P = \frac
==Derivation of equation ==
The model uses the fact that the current value of the dividend payment D_0 (1+g)^t at (discrete ) time t is \frac
This summation can be rewritten as
:P= r' (1+r'+^2+^3+....)
where
:r'=\frac.
Clearly, the series in parenthesis is the geometric series with common ratio r' so it sums to \frac if r'<1. Thus,
: P = \frac
Substituting the value for r' leads to
: P = \frac },
which is simplified by multiplying by \frac , so that
:P = \frac

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
ウィキペディアで「Dividend discount model」の詳細全文を読む



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